Natural disaster danger judgment in tourist area base on multi scenario analysis

Natural disaster danger judgment in tourist area base on multi scenario analysis

  • Research Paper
  • Published :
  • Book 15, page 659–670 , (2022)
  • Cite this article
  • Xinliang Ye1,
  • Jiahong Wen2,
  • Zhongfu Zhu3&
  • …
  • Ruihong Sun1 

  • 1398Accesses

  • 9Reference

  • 8Altmetric

  • 1Reference

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From the practice of tourism industry , many scenic spot emphasize emergency rescue and ignore risk prevention in safety management.From the perspective of research , a big number of literatures center on the emergency direction of scenic position , and miss the concept and method of systematic danger direction . This research lay ahead the natural disaster hazard judgment method in tourist area by the introduction and evolution of the conception of scenario analysis technique.This method relies on GIS ( Geographic Information System ) and RS ( Remote Sensing ) engineering to simulate typical natural catastrophe risk scenarios in the scenic domain in the future , and establish the corresponding relationship between the intensity of typical risk and disaster risk scenarios . Further , it separate tourism resource and tourist facility , study the characteristic of the time and space distribution of tourist and residents in the scenic domain , and demonstrate the corresponding relationship between the intensity of risk factor and the vulnerability of the scenic area ’ s bearer ; finally , by fitting the risk curve , establish a comprehensive calamity loss example for the scenic region and promise the amount Scenario average annual loss.Taking the Jiuzhaigou Tree Zhengjing Group as an example , imitate the speed , flow and impact of dust flow caused by six torrential rain scenarios in Jiuzhaigou in 20 , 50 , 100 , 200 , 500 , and 1000 years , and establish six scenarios of dust flow and tree . The vulnerability of the Zhengjing Group ; promise potential losses and casualties in six scenarios ; compound with acceptable risks , propose next natural disaster prevention and hazard reduction measures for Jiuzhaigou Shuzhengzhai .

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Fan W-C ( 2007 ) Advisement and suggestion to scientific problems of emergency Management for Public Incidents . Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China 2:71–76

Faulkner B ( 2001 ) Towards a framework for tourism disaster direction . Tour Manag 02:135–147

Fuchs G , Reichel A ( 2011 ) An exploratory question into destination risk perception and risk reduction strategies of first time vs. repeat visitors to a extremely explosive destination . Tour Manag 32 ( 2 ) :266–276

Hemalatha S , Anouncia SM ( 2017 ) Unsupervised segmentation of remote detection images using FD base texture analysis model and ISODATA . International Journal of Ambient Computing and Intelligence ( IJACI ) 8 ( 3 ) :58–75

Hystad PW , Keller PC ( 2008 ) Towards a destination tourism disaster direction framework : long-run lessons from a forest fire catastrophe . Tourism Management 01:151–162

López-Baldovin MJ , Gutiérrez-Martin C , Berbel J ( 2006 ) Multicriteria and multiperiod programming for scenario analysis in guadalquivir river irrigated farming . J Oper Res Soc 57 ( 5 ) :499–509

Ma Belén GM ( 2005 ) Weather , mood and tourism a geographical position . Ann Tour Res 03:571–591

Mantyniemi P ( 2012 ) An analysis of seismic risk from a tourism level of scene . Disasters 36 ( 3 ) :465–476

Méheux K , Parker E ( 2006 ) Tourist sector perception of natural risk in Vanuatu and the significance for a small island developing state . Tour Manag 01:69–85

Mileti DS ( 1999 ) Natural hazards and disasters-disasters by design a reassessment of natural chance in the United States . Joseph Henry Press , Washington D C , p 1999

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Mukherjee A , Dey N , Kausar N , Ashour AS , Taiar R , Hassanien AE ( 2016 ) A disaster management specific mobility model for flying Ad-hoc network . International Journal of Rough Sets and Data Analysis 3 ( 3 ) :72–103

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Petak WJ , Atkisson AA ( 1982 ) Natural fortune risk judgment and public policy : anticipating the unexpected . Springer-Verlag , New York

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Racherla P , Hu C ( 2009 ) A framework for knowledge-based crisis management in the hospitality and tourism industry . Cornell Hosp Q 04:561–577

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Wen J-H , Hui H , Ke C , Ye X-L , Hu H-Z , Hua Z-Y ( 2012 ) Probabilistic community-based typhoon disaster hazard assessment——a type of Fululi community , Shanghai . Sci Geogr Sin 3203:348–355

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Yin Z-E , Xu S-Y , Jie Y et al ( 2010 ) Small-scale base scenario pattern judgment of urban rainstorm and disaster risk water-logging . Acta Geographica Scinica 05:553–562

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of direction , Shanghai University of Engineering Science , 333 Longteng Road , Shanghai , People ’ s Republic of China

    Xinliang Ye & Ruihong Sun

  2. School of environmental and geographical skill , Shanghai Normal University , 100 Guilin Road , Shanghai , People ’ s Republic of China

    Jiahong Wen

  3. Jiuzhai Valley Scenic Area Administration , Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture , Zhangzha Town , Jiuzhaigou County , Sichuan Province , China

    Zhongfu Zhu

School of management , Shanghai University of Engineering Science , 333 Longteng Road , Shanghai , People ’ s Republic of China

School of environmental and geographical science , Shanghai Normal University , 100 Guilin Road , Shanghai , People ’ s Republic of China

Jiuzhai Valley Scenic Area Administration , Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture , Zhangzha Town , Jiuzhaigou County , Sichuan Province , China

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Ye , X. , Wen , J. , Zhu , Z .et al .Natural tragedy risk judgment in tourist area based on multi scenario analysis .Earth Sci Inform 15, 659–670 ( 2022 ) . https : //doi.org/10.1007/s12145-020-00518-w

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Keywords

  • Debris flow
  • Natural calamity
  • Danger judgment
  • Multi-scenarios
  • Tourist areas
  • Jiuzhai Valley

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